Two of the most well-known models for weather forecasting are the U.S. Although some models are usually better than others, no model is perfect, and their performance varies from season to season and from storm to storm. We often hear a lot of questions asking which model is the best one. In addition, NHC has found ways to even beat the individual dynamical models by using a balance of statistical approaches and experience. Also, the resolution and physics in the models we use today are far superior to what forecasters had available in the 1990s or prior decades, in part due to the tremendous improvements in computational capabilities. The amount and quality of data available to the models so they can paint an initial picture of the atmosphere have increased dramatically in the last 20 to 30 years. Well, the primary reason is the advancements in technology, specifically the improvements in the observing platforms (satellites, for example) and the various modeling systems we use to make forecasts. So, you might be wondering why the track forecasts are more accurate today than in the past. You can easily see that the NHC forecasts for the path of a TC today are much more accurate, on average, than they were decades ago, and these more accurate forecasts have helped narrow the warning areas, save lives, and make for more efficient and less costly evacuations. If NHC makes the same forecast today, now the storm ends up, on average, somewhere on the red circle.

What it shows is that if NHC had made a forecast for a storm to be over Pensacola in 48 hours back in 1990, the TC would have ended up, on average, not exactly over Pensacola but somewhere on the blue circle. The next graphic shows two circles centered on a point near Pensacola, Florida, with the blue one representing the average 48-hour track error in 1990 and the red one showing the average 48-hour error today. If that doesnвЂ™t seem impressive, letвЂ™s look at another example. You can see that there has been a steady reduction in the track errors over time, with the average errors in the current decade about 30-40% smaller than they were in the 2000s and about half of the size (or even smaller) than they were in the 1990s. The figure below shows the average NHC track forecast errors for tropical storms and hurricanes by decade beginning in the 1960s. Because these nearby weather patterns are big, we can usually вЂњseeвЂќ them easily, and the global weather models do a fairly good job in predicting how these steering features might evolve over the course of a few days. The primary reason for this is because the track of a TC is governed by forces larger than the tropical system itself, since the surrounding steering currents cover a much larger area than the hurricane. We are usually more confident in predicting the path of TCs as compared to predicting the strength or size of a TC. Track Forecasting (a.k.a., Where the Storm Will Go) In addition, the lead times of tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings have increased to give the public additional time to prepare for these potentially devastating events.

Since then, weвЂ™ve expanded our forecasts out in time and added predictions of TC intensity, size, and associated hazards, such as wind, storm surge, and rainfall. NHC has a long history of issuing advisories for TCs, with the first known recorded forecast being in 1954, when 24-hour predictions of a TCвЂ™s track were made. watches/warnings for tropical cyclones (TCs), which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, for the Atlantic and east Pacific basins. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has the responsibility for issuing advisories and U.S. From NOAA by John Cangialosi, Hurricane Specialist, National Hurricane Center

Hurricane track models most accurate